Government Risk Intelligence  —  Alt-30 Consulting

When Policy Changes, Risk Follows. Be Prepared.

Alt-30 Consulting delivers independent, longitudinal analysis of government policy risk for state agencies, legislative offices, and the businesses they govern. We quantify what policy change costs before it arrives.

UI Trust Fund Solvency
287g Policy Diffusion
Tariff Cost Projections
AI Displacement Risk
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Our Philosophy

Fixed scope.
No vendor agenda.

Every Alt-30 engagement is a discrete, independently produced research product. We carry no software to sell, no platform to upsell.

Our only product is analysis.

Government policy is the single largest source of unpriced risk for both public institutions and private organizations. We exist to price it.

01
Proactive, Not ReactivePolicy risk that arrives as a surprise is the most expensive kind. We track signals before they become headlines.
02
Both Sides of the TableWe serve state agencies managing policy and the businesses navigating it. The same government action creates risk on both sides of the equation.
03
Longitudinal DepthAnyone can describe a policy. We can show you what similar policies produced in comparable jurisdictions over decades. That is a different kind of answer.
04
No Conflicts, No PlatformsIndependent analysis means we are not selling an implementation. Our findings are our product. Nothing else.
Practice Areas

Four domains.
One discipline.

Government action creates risk and opportunity simultaneously. We track the specific policy domains where that risk is currently most acute, for both the institutions setting policy and the organizations living under it.

01 / Practice Area
Unemployment Insurance
UI trust fund solvency is a structural fiscal risk for state governments and a direct cost driver for employers through FUTA credit reductions and tax rate volatility. We analyze both sides: agency solvency and business exposure.
Trust Fund Solvency FUTA Credit Reduction Overpayment Risk Reserve Trajectory Benefit Adequacy
02 / Practice Area
Immigration Policy
287g agreements and broader federal immigration enforcement policy diffuses unevenly across municipalities. We track policy adoption patterns, fiscal impacts on local governments, and labor market disruption at the county level.
287g Diffusion Municipal Fiscal Impact Labor Market Disruption Policy Spread Modeling
03 / Practice Area
Trade & Tariff Policy
Tariff regimes restructure cost curves across entire industries. We build cost projection models, analyze sector-level exposure, and track downstream effects on municipal revenue and state employment bases.
Cost Projections Sector Exposure Supply Chain Risk State Revenue Impact
04 / Practice Area
AI & Labor Displacement
Accelerating AI adoption is the most consequential structural labor market shift since offshoring. The question for state UI systems and employers alike is not whether displacement comes — it is whether your institution is positioned for it.
Displacement Projections UI Fund Stress Testing Sector Vulnerability Workforce Transition
What We Deliver

Discrete deliverables.
Defensible analysis.

Fixed scope. No vendor agenda.
Our only product is analysis.

Every engagement is a bounded research product with a defined scope, a defined deliverable, and a defined fee. We design for the constraints of government procurement — most entry engagements are structured to qualify for sole-source approval.

01
Policy Risk Snapshot
A one-page briefing on a specific policy risk facing your organization or jurisdiction, drawn from our longitudinal database and peer comparisons. Delivered before a first conversation.
Entry Engagement
02
Fiscal Stress Test
Scenario analysis projecting your reserve trajectory or cost exposure under defined policy scenarios. Includes comparable jurisdiction analysis and federal threshold modeling.
Agencies & Budget Offices
03
Leading Indicator Monitor
Ongoing quarterly tracking of early-warning signals across your jurisdiction or sector. Delivered as a recurring brief with updated data and trajectory analysis.
Flagship Service
04
Legislative Briefing Package
Committee-ready analysis framed around constituent impact, peer state outcomes, and cost-of-inaction scenarios. Designed to withstand a hearing without modification.
Legislative Offices
05
Policy Impact Report
Deep analysis of a specific policy action — a new agreement, rate change, or federal rule — modeling projected costs, behavioral responses, and comparable jurisdiction outcomes.
Policy & Planning
06
Sponsored Research
Independent longitudinal studies co-developed with policy foundations or university partners. Published through PoliMetrics with full methodology disclosure.
Foundations & Universities
Emerging Risk

AI is reshaping
the labor market.

Accelerating AI adoption is the most consequential structural labor market shift in a generation. Jobs at risk from automation translate directly into UI claim pressure, state tax base erosion, and political volatility. How well positioned is your institution?

47%
of U.S. jobs at high risk of automation in the next decade, per Oxford University research
$3.7T
estimated global wage exposure to generative AI displacement by 2030
<1.0
AHCM reserve ratio in most states heading into 2026 — the minimum needed before displacement risk escalates
About Alt-30

Independent analysis.
No conflicts. No platforms.

Alt-30 Consulting is an independent government risk intelligence firm built around a single differentiator: we built our own data infrastructure from scratch.

Our proprietary longitudinal database covers 500+ municipalities and all 50 states from fiscal year 1967 to present, integrated with Census, FRED, DOL, and state appropriations data. That infrastructure lets us show clients what a policy trajectory means before it shows up in a budget shortfall or a political crisis.

We carry a PhD economist on every engagement, operate with no vendor relationships, and publish independent research through PoliMetrics, our research platform covering state fiscal policy, labor economics, and federal policy diffusion.

We serve both sides of the policy table — the governments setting policy and the organizations navigating its consequences.

Longitudinal Depth
Fiscal year 1967 to present across 500+ jurisdictions. Pattern recognition requires history. We have it.
PhD Economist on Staff
Government risk and labor economics expertise on every engagement. Not contracted. On staff.
Both Sides of Policy
We serve agencies managing policy and businesses navigating it. The same government action creates risk on both sides.
No Vendor Conflicts
We do not sell software, platforms, or implementation services. Our analysis is not a sales funnel for anything else.
Deliverables That Travel
Every report is designed to be placed in front of a director, committee chair, or CFO without modification.
Research Platform
PoliMetrics

Alt-30's independent research publication covering state fiscal policy, federal policy diffusion, labor economics, and government risk. Published for policymakers, legislative staff, institutional researchers, and business leaders navigating policy risk.

Read PoliMetrics
UI Research
UI Trust Fund Solvency After COVID: Which States Are Still Exposed and Why
Immigration
287g Policy Diffusion: Fiscal and Labor Market Impacts on Adopting Municipalities
Trade
Tariff Pass-Through: Modeling Downstream Cost Exposure by Sector and State
AI Risk
Automation and the UI Trust Fund: Is Your State Positioned for the Next Wave?
Interactive Tools

Live data.
Explore the research.

Our public-facing tools put years of longitudinal government data in your hands. Benchmark your municipality, assess UI system performance, or estimate your 287g policy exposure — directly from the data.

Contact Us

Policy risk doesn't wait.
Neither should you.

We will put together a policy risk snapshot for your jurisdiction or sector before our first conversation. No sales pitch. No platform demo. Just the data and what it suggests.

morgan.harman@alt-30.com
Response
Within one business day
Entry Engagement
Policy risk snapshot delivered before our first call — no fee, no obligation
Procurement
Most entry engagements are structured for sole-source approval
Location
Remote-first. Nationwide.

Message received.

Thanks for reaching out. We'll review your note and follow up within one business day — often with a policy risk snapshot already in hand.